Population Trends In the Developed World (7 questions)
1. c) none
No developed countries have above replacement-level fertility. The rate in the
U.S.—2.0 children—is the highest in the developed world, but
replacement level is actually 2.1 because not all children will live to
adulthood. France's rate is 1.9, Italy's a mere 1.2. And for the entire
developed world it is only 1.5. In contrast, the rate is 3.1 in the less
developed world—or 3.5 if China is not included.
2. a) Japan
Baby girls born in Japan today have a life expectancy of 84 years—the
highest in the world and nearly twice the 46 years for a girl born in Kenya.
Life expectancy, a reflection of a nation's health and economy, is high
throughout the developed world. Average life expectancy for both men and women
is 76.
3. b) 1 out of 5
Roughly 240 million people, or 20 percent of the developed-world population,
are 60 years or older. With declining birth rates and increasing longevity,
this percentage will grow. By 2050, the ratio will be 1 in 3.
4. b) 20 percent
Only about 20 percent of older Americans live in extended-family
settings—a drastic change from a century ago, when roughly 70 percent
lived with their grown children and extended family.
5. a) 2.5
By 2035, the ratio will be roughly 2.5 to 1. The low ratio of taxpayers to
retirees will have significant economic consequences. In the 1960s, when many
entitlement programs were established, the ratio was closer to 7 to 1.
6. a) 31.9 percent
In his book Gray Dawn, Peterson calculates the payroll tax rate would
need to be 31.9 percent to cover public pensions and health benefits—a
crushing burden on future American workers. But it would be even more severe in
Japan and Italy, where the tax rates would need to be 53.2 and 71.5 percent,
respectively.
7. b) 11 percent
Roughly 11 percent of the U.S. population is foreign-born. Immigration accounts
for almost a third of annual population growth and is why the U.S. does not
face the dramatic population declines confronting other nations. Immigration
may offer a solution to economic problems looming ahead for the developed world
as well as offer relief to crowded, less developed countries.
Population Trends In the Developing World (8 questions)
1. c) 11.6 billion
Yes. The UNPD projects that in 2050 there will be a staggering 11.6 billion
people in the developing world—12.8 billion in the entire world—if
today's fertility rates remain constant. The more often cited
projections—7.7 billion for the developing world and 8.9 billion
overall—assume a decline in fertility.
2. b) 60 years
A baby born in India today has a life expectancy of 60 years—nearly
two-thirds longer than in 1881. Such a sharp increase in life expectancy
throughout the developing world in the mid-20th century gave rise to the
population "explosion" of the latter half of the century. Today, throughout the
developing world, life expectancy is 63 years.
3. b) decreased dramatically
Fertility has plummeted from 6.1 to 3.3, and if China is included, the
decline is 6.2 to 2.9. Yet populations continue to skyrocket because of
ever-increasing numbers of young people who are having babies—a
phenomenon known as population momentum. In pockets of the developing world,
fertility remains extremely high. In Niger, it has actually increased from 7.7
to 8 children.
4. a) smaller families
Educated women generally want smaller families and make better use of
reproductive health services. As female education rises, fertility, population
growth, and infant and child mortality fall, and family health improves. An
educated mother is also more likely to insist on the education of all of her
children, perpetuating a virtuous cycle.
5. b) 48 percent
In India, 48 percent of married women use contraception—many more than
did a few decades ago. But in over 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, less
than 10 percent of married women use modern contraceptive methods. In a few
developing nations, such as Brazil and Thailand, contraceptive use nears 70
percent, largely due to government funding of family planning services.
6. c) 527,000
The World Health Organization estimates that 527,000 women in the developing
world died in 2000 from maternal causes. Almost all of these deaths occurred in
Africa and Asia; India alone suffered 136,000 deaths. The lifetime risk of
maternal death is 1 in 61 for women in the developing world, 1 in 2,800 for
women in more developed countries.
7. c) 1.6 billion
There are 1.6 billion people under age 15—more than a quarter of the
world's population. In India alone there are roughly 550 million people under
25. Even if fertility rates decline sharply, the large numbers of young people
in the developed world will fuel population growth.
8. b) 40 percent
Yes. Roughly 40 percent live in urban areas, compared with 76 percent in the
developed world. But the developing world is becoming more urban; by 2030,
nearly 60 percent of people may live in cities. With urbanization, consumption
patterns may increasingly mirror those in the developed world—creating a
potential host of environmental problems.
The Environmental Challenge (9 questions)
1. c) consumption
High levels of consumption of everything from freshwater to fossil fuels to
kitchen gadgets is the greatest cause of environmental damage in more developed
countries. These high consumption patterns also affect environments in the less
developed world—putting pressure on natural resources and creating
greenhouse gases and pollutants that know no national boundaries.
2. c) 15 times as much
In a single year each North American consumes roughly 230 gigajoules of
energy, or the energy in 92 barrels of oil. This is twice as much as Europeans,
eight times as much as Asians, and more than fifteen times as much as Africans.
3. a) 15 cars
In China there are only 15 cars for every thousand people in. In most
developed nations there are more than 200, and in the U.S. there are nearly
600. But the passenger car market is growing dramatically in China. Somewhere
around 2025, China will likely pass the U.S. as the world's largest auto market
as well as the world's largest emitter of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide.
4. a) 23 percent
According to 1998 World Bank estimates, 23 percent of the world's
population—more than a billion people—live on less than US$1 a day.
And in nations like Ethiopia, more than 80 percent of people live at this level
of poverty. Most poor people in the world rely on the land for subsistence and
may suffer the most from environmental damage.
5. b) 70 percent
Even if consumption rates stay constant, population growth will lead humans
to use 70 percent of Earth's annual available freshwater by 2025. And if
consumption rates in developing countries increase to the current levels in
developed nations, humans will use 90 percent. Water scarcity may increasingly
become a cause of international conflict, particularly in water-scarce regions
like the Middle East and North Africa.
6. c) 826 million people
According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, 826 million people
are not getting enough food to lead healthy and active lives. Roughly 34
million children, women, and men are undernourished in the more developed
world, but the vast majority—nearly 800 million—live in the
developing world.
7. b) 958
On average, there were 958 people living in each square km. of Bangladesh.
By 2050, population density in Bangladesh is expected to hit 1,768 people/km.
And some regions, like Singapore, will have more than 7,000 people/km.
8. b) initially rise, but peak and decline
Pollution levels initially rise, but eventually peak and decline. Kuznets
theorized that rising affluence plays a role: As a country gets richer, a
middle-class develops and the more affluent population demands a cleaner
environment. Older equipment is replaced by more expensive but cleaner
technologies. England, the U.S., Germany, and Japan all followed this
pattern.
9. c) It may be impossible to calculate.
There is no absolute figure. Recent estimates range from 1 to 2 billion
people living in prosperity to 33 billion people fed on minimum rations. The
pressure humans put on the environment depends on population, consumption, and
technology. Both population and consumption are almost certain to rise. Less
certain is whether new technologies will be developed, and adopted, to allow
human beings to live sustainably.
Note on Sources
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